To sum up the first half of June:
- Sales are up year over year, and month-over-month so far to date
- Inventory continues to decline
- Prices are still down year-over-year for both SFH & Condos
- From May, Condo median price is up approx $10k. This could be attributed to larger units selling as price per square foot is down.
- From May, SFH prices are remaining quite stable with only a little movement upwards in the average price and the median holding at $390k.
Last June, there was a month-end inventory of 6543 SFH, and 3093 Condos. Vacant/New Construction listings are down substantially as well. There are currently 917 SFH & 651 Condos that are Vacant/New compared to 1757 & 1144 at the end of June 2008.
In the first week of May, the question was posed: In Which Month Will Sales Peak This Year? Below are the results as of yesterday:
While May had been the strongest month for sales in 2009, up year-over-year, June is on pace to reach the same levels for SFHs/Condos and perhaps even exceed them.
For more indepth MLS statistics that are updated daily, visit my website at FindCalgary.ca
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Planning on buying or selling? Contact me at 403-554-2284 or by email at mike@findcalgary.com
7 responses so far ↓
Mike // June 17, 2009 at 8:45 am
As Mortgage rates start to raise it will be interesting to see what effect it has on sales. Few want to buy when rates are going up, fewer still when the Real Estate market is in “uncertain times”.
Will 5 year, 7% fixed rates be the norm by December?
Mike
Chuck // June 17, 2009 at 8:51 am
Mike,
“Few want to buy when rates are going up”
Wouldn’t you think that would stimulate sales as people rush to lock in at a lower rate before they get even higher? I think that’s what is happening right now?
The question in my mind is at what rate do buyers decide that its just too expensive and put off their purchase?
Mike Fotiou // June 17, 2009 at 6:18 pm
I believe that those that want to purchase would just opt for the variable rate which is still at its historical low, especially if the fixed rate keeps climbing. But with interest rates with no where to go but up, those choosing to go the variable route should budget for higher interest rates in the next few years.
Some mortgage products allow you to hedge, having part of your mortgage under a fixed rate, and the other part with a variable rate.
cj // June 19, 2009 at 3:58 am
i think this whole interest rate issue is a huge corundum for buyers. The spread between variable and fixed is too large and I would bet the vast majority of buyers are going variable because its “cheaper”. The problem will be…when do i lock in and when I do, can I afford the bump….it has to be a scary proposition for people who are actually thinking ahead!!
Mike, what are you seeing from new buyers?
tks
Mike Fotiou says: Those that adhere closely to a budget are deciding to lock-in for the 5 or 10 year rate to give them some piece of mind. Others are taking advantage of the low variable rate to pocket money now. It really depends on the situation and mindset of the buyer.
Mike // June 23, 2009 at 9:13 am
Chuck // “Wouldn’t you think that would stimulate sales as people rush to lock in at a lower rate before they get even higher? I think that’s what is happening right now?
The question in my mind is at what rate do buyers decide that its just too expensive and put off their purchase?”
I agree with you, new buyers are most likely rushing to purchase before rates go up, thinking only of the short term smaller issue (save money on interest) not the long term issue (housing prices going down and rates to go up).
Fixed mortgage rates at 7% (end of this year) is my guess and as the spread increases people who cannot pay off their house in 5 years would be best to lock in and have high risk tolerances.
This all happend in the 80’s RE boom, and those who bought then took 20 years for their purchase to make ANY money at all. 20 years is a long time to wait. But 1-2 years to wait till the market bottoms out is much shorter.
Be smart with your money, wait and rent.
Mike
Chuck // June 23, 2009 at 10:16 am
While rising interest rates may eventually become a real affordability issue I’m not sure that we’ll see 7% by the end of the year. The economy has just been through a proverbial car crash and is sitting in ICU. Everyone is talking about inflation taking place but it sure isn’t happening yet- not to any degree. For bond rates, and government intervention, to end up driving rates to 7% or higher would certainly put a damper on things. I can’t see it happening personally, not yet, not this year, but my crystal ball doesn’t work and I’m willing to bet yours doesn’t either.
The wait and rent argument is a little too vague for my tastes. Depends where, what, and how you buy- if you choose to. If you don’t choose to buy you’d better be a savvy investor to come up with any decent return on your money and if inflation is the wave of the future I’d much rather be invested in hedges like real estate and precious metals- not stocks and bonds. If I had to wait for the pricing to come down to “affordable” levels to buy a real estate hedge- well- most other folks would already be on that band wagon too thereby likely driving the price up- or rates would be so terrible it wouldn’t be worth jumping into the market.
Most people told me I was retarded for buying a house a few years ago and paying the price that I did. I ended up selling recently with an attractive profit and bought another in the inner city with a very long investment horizon (unless of course a great opportunity comes by to sell). People are telling me I’m crazy once again. These same people told my parent’s generation that they were nuts for buying at the price they did many, many years ago. Guess we’ll see.
Gary // June 23, 2009 at 1:05 pm
To Mike:
Yes ,yes, and yes!!! You 100% right.
Gary.