The following is an update while we’re awaiting the April month-end review in just a few days:
Inventory
- Inventory Absorption rate for homes under $500,000 in Calgary are now between 2.2-3.4 months, smack in the middle of a “balanced” market territory. We’ll have April’s complete month-end absorption rate in just a few days.
- Last April, there was a SFH month-end inventory of 6881. Currently: 4282 (-2599)
- Last April, there was a Condo month-end inventory of 3214. Currently: 2091 (-1123)
- Last April, there were 1794 Vacant/New Construction SFH’s listed. It’s currently at 1068 (-726)
- Last April, there were 1185 Vacant/New Construction Condo’s listed. It’s currently at 716 (-469)
House Price Index
Canadian home prices in February were down 4.1% from a year earlier, according to Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ newsletter that was released today.
Of the six constituent city indices, four were down from a year earlier: Calgary (−8.1%), Vancouver (−6.4%), Toronto (−5.0%) and, new to the list, Halifax (−0.5%). While prices were still up from a year earlier in Montreal (3.2%) and Ottawa (2.8%), the 12-month increase in those two cities has decelerated markedly in recent months. For Calgary and Vancouver it was the eighth straight monthly decline.
We’ll have the April month-end MLS numbers in a few days for comparison to last year .
|
Metropolitan area |
Index level |
% change m/m |
% change y/y |
From peak |
Peak date |
|
Calgary |
154.28 |
-0.7% |
-8.1% |
-12.0% |
2007- Aug |
|
Halifax |
116.97 |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-4.0% |
2008 – Nov |
|
Montreal |
120.58 |
-1.2% |
3.2% |
-1.6% |
2008 – Sep |
|
Ottawa |
113.76 |
-0.2% |
2.8% |
-3.8% |
2008 – Oct |
|
Toronto |
106.75 |
-3.1% |
-5.0% |
-9.0% |
2008 – Aug |
|
Vancouver |
135.27 |
-2.0% |
-6.4 % |
-10.2% |
2008 – Jun |
|
National Composite |
121.16 |
-2.0% |
-4.1% |
-7.4% |
2008 – Aug |
Employment Situation in Calgary
“The number of Calgarians receiving employment insurance doubled in just one year, with more than 11,700 now on government assistance after losing their jobs. The number of EI recipients in Alberta rose by 67.9 per cent from October 2008 to February 2009, according to newly released figures from Statistics Canada. Across the country, Alberta experienced the sharpest increase in workers claiming EI, followed by British Columbia, Ontario and Saskatchewan.” – Calgary Herald April 29, 2009
Even with mounting job losses, Albertans are still cashing the highest paychecks in the country. The average weekly wage rose 2.7% in February. Earnings are up 5% from a year ago. Average Alberta wages are about 7% higher than the rest of the country.
“Not only are Albertans enjoying the fastest pace of earnings increase in the country, the gap between earnings in Alberta and everywhere else is widening,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
In a poll conducted last week of just over 1000 people, 50% of those polled believe this is a ‘mild recession’, with 38% regarding it as ‘severe’. 40% were optimistic of a recovery within in the next year, with 26% expecting it to get worse. Pollster Jeff Walker said the results suggest the recession hasn’t hit most individuals in day-to-day pocketbook issues. (Source)
Interest Rates
Interest rates are at historic lows, with 5-year fixed in the 3-4% range and variable rates even lower. Earlier this week, Canada’s central bankers that they intend to leave the benchmark lending rate at a record low of 0.25 per cent for as long as a year. (Source)
Sales
Last April there was a total of 1363 SFH sales and 581 Condo sales. As of April 27th, there were 1132 SFH and 514 Condo sales recorded for April.
A scenario that is becoming more frequent in Calgary: Homeowner wants/needs to sell. Mortgage amount is more than the current market value of the property. Since Title cannot be conveyed because there is not enough money to pay out all the encumbrances on title, homeowner cannot sell.
