CREB`s Annual Forecast: 2009

• Calgary Real Estate Board 2009 Forecast Presentation (1 mb, PDF file)
• CREB 2009 Forecast Media Release (PDF file)

Today the Calgary Real Estate Board had its annual Forecast Conference and Tradeshow.    It`s forecast that the average MLS sale price will drop 2% for SFH, and 5% for condos in 2009.

The board also said single-family listings will remain the same as in 2008, but sales will increase by 10%. The condo market will have listings increase 5%, but sales will fall by 5%.

Here`s a look back at previous annual forecasts.

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2002 Forecast: Forecast Good for Resale Market

In her inaugural speech, Board president Joyce Travis remarked, “We’re expecting another healthy year in the Calgary market with modest decreases in the number of listings and sales, and a four-percent increase in average prices.”

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2003 Forecast:  New President Unveils Positive Outlook

The Calgary Real Estate Board held its annual forecast meeting on Jan. 9, 2002, and this year’s president predicts another good year for the MLS(R) resale housing market in Calgary.

In her inaugural speech, president Rosalee Krygier remarked, “Taking into account our record-shattering year in 2002 and continued consumer confidence and low interest rates, we expect another strong and vibrant year for real estate in Calgary.”

Other positive factors noted by Krygier included Calgary’s status as an employment growth leader, steady in-migration, and rising oil and gas prices, which have historically been a positive factor for the Alberta economy

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2004 Forecast: Another Good Year for MLS Housing Market Predicted

The Calgary Real Estate Board held its annual forecast meeting Wednesday and this year’s Board president expects another good year for the resale real estate market in Calgary.

In his inaugural speech, president Don Dickson remarked, “Taking into account our record-breaking year in 2002 and the healthy year just ended, combined with consumer confidence and relatively low interest rates, we expect another positive year for resale real estate in Calgary.”

“While we are expecting the market to ease somewhat from 2003′s pace, any time over 20,000 units change hands in a year it indicates a very healthy real estate market,” said Dickson`

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2006 Forecast:  Shaping Up To Be Another Great Year

The continuation of low mortgage interest rates, strong job growth and upbeat consumer confidence resulted in strong resale housing activity across Canada in 2005,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Of those factors, interest rates played the leading role. Rising interest rates is the primary reason why housing activity in 2006 is expected to moderate compared to the record levels posted last year.”

Even though properties will continue to command high prices, the actual cost to carry a home will still be quite affordable compared to renting – a key factor in driving the market

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2007 Forecast: Calgary’s economic outlook good for 2007

Ron Stanners, CREB president said the overall resale real estate market in Calgary in 2007 will be “the year of moderation compared to the hyper drive marketplace of 2006.”

Adam Legge (Calgary Economic Development) agreed, and in his presentation outlined the forecasted numbers relating to growth, the business sector, housing and immigration. And while he said they wouldn’t likely reach the same heights as in 2006, healthy growth shall still occur.  (Source)

He explained that there are numerous external drivers that will impact the opportunities for economic growth in Calgary over the next year. These include falling commodity prices in the U.S. and the overall U.S. economy performance.

“There is a generally widespread consensus that the U.S. economy is heading for, if not already into, a slowdown,” Legge said.  The main contributor to that includes a cooling down of the U.S. housing market. While it’s slowing down, Legge said general thoughts are that the slowdown will likely rebound by the end of 2007.  Because the U.S. economy accounts for over 20% of the world economy, it impacts everywhere else, especially Canada.

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2008 Forecast: Economy to return to sustainable level in ‘08

Calgary’s economy is expected to return to a more sustainable level in 2008. According to the 2008 Economic Outlook released by Calgary Economic Development (CED), it will be a level of economic growth slower than last year, yet one that is very healthy and the “envy and desire of any city around the world.

Though the brakes are being applied to Calgary’s record breaking growth two years ago, the outlook for 2008 remains very optimistic with economic development tapering off to more sustainable levels that will not resemble a typical “boom and bust” cycle, said Adam Legge, Director of Research and Business Information for CED.

“Slower growth is not a bad thing, it does not mean negative growth,” said Legge. “In essence, it is actually a good thing.”

The energy sector will remain strong in 2008 and continued high oil prices should provide a lift to the oil patch and support continued drilling and oil sands project investments.

CREB President Ed Jensen says we also have to look at basic indicators, such as supply and demand. (Source)

“The Province’s fiscal policies are good and strong and that all of the above, lead us to the fact that we will have a good ’08. It will be a good marketplace suitable for both buyers and sellers,” he says, adding that there will be less speculative buying, which is good for everyone involved.

“I believe the first part of the 2008 market will show listings and sales reflecting a bit of a rollercoaster ride, with listing inventory going up and down and the same with sales until we work through the last of the crazy market from 2007.”

As for prices in 2008, Jensen said he is comfortable forecasting that the Metro average sale price for single family homes will increase by 5% and that Condominium sale values should increase by 6% in 2008.

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It might be worthwhile to note what was stated as important points to consider in previous forecasts and apply them in today`s market (copied from the forecasts above):

• We have to look at basic indicators, such as supply and demand
• Because the U.S. economy accounts for over 20% of the world economy, it impacts everywhere else, especially Canada.
• High oil prices should provide a lift to the oil patch and support continued drilling and oil sands project investments.
• A key factor in driving the market is the cost of carrying a home compared to renting
• Consumer confidence is important in order to expect a good year ahead
• Low interest rates promote spending

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