Monthly Archives: December 2008

Metro-Calgary Sales & Prices at mid-December 2008

Metro-Calgary has recorded 277 Single Family Home and 118 condo sales month-to-date in December (1-16th)   This is down from last December where 515 SFH and 230 condo sales were recorded during the same time period.

(All figures below are for the same time period, Dec 1-16th)

SFH median is down $30k,  from $410,000 to its current $380,000.   The average price has also dropped approximately $26k, from $442,166 to $415,908.

Condo average prices have dropped from $312,166 to $280,356 with the median falling from $289,500 to $253,500.

 middecember2008

The Lawyer’s Part of Purchasing or Selling Residential Real Estate

This informative article reprinted with permission from:

BILL FRIC
Fric Loweinstein & Co. LLP
Barristers & Solicitors
#310, 2891 Sunridge Way NE
Calgary, Alberta T1Y 7K7
Phone: (403) 291-2594
Fax: (403) 291-2668

What To Do & Expect?

After all conditions are waived, typically the listing real estate office will send your Real Estate Purchase Contract and contact information to the lawyer you have chosen.

The lawyer will then review the Contract and do a tax and title search, including a search of liens and other encumbrances affecting the property.  If something unusual is encountered, the lawyer may contact you at this stage.

If you are a Seller, and if you have not already arranged for an updated Real Property Report (Survey), then call the law office and discuss that as soon as possible.  Note that usually a Seller must provide a Real Property Report that shows all improvements built on the property, including fences, and it must have on it a Certificate of Compliance from the City.  (This requirement does not apply to most condos – but it does apply to bareland condos, where you own the land around your unit.)

If you a Buyer, ensure at this time that all the money you will need to pay will be available to you in a bank draft by at least ten days before the possession date.  If you need to make arrangements to get the money out of an RRSP or investments, or by way of interim financing of another property, you need to make these arrangements now, as sometimes your bank will need time to make the money available.

If you are buying and getting a mortgage, do whatever your lender may still need in order for your lender to finalize your mortgage.  Mortgage companies may need a lot of time to process your mortgage, so do this as soon as possible.  If you are getting a mortgage, the lawyer will have to wait to get mortgage instructions from your lender.

Once a law office receives mortgage instructions from your lender, the law office will calculate adjustments to your purchase price, and the net amount of your mortgage advance.

Typical adjustments are for taxes, condo fees, and homeowner’s association fees.  For example, if a Buyer of a condo takes possession on September 15, the Buyer will have to reimburse the Seller for one half  (1/2) of September’s condo fees.  If taxes on the condo are paid up to the end of the year, as is most often the case, then the Buyer will have to reimburse the Seller for those taxes pre-paid for the period September 15 to December 31.

Mortgage advance refers to the net amount your mortgage company will be paying to the lawyer to complete your purchase.  Since some lenders may take off high ratio fees, application fees, appraisal fees, a tax holdback, or the first month’s interest, or even a courier fee, that will leave you with less than you may expect to receive under your mortgage. (You should ask your lender or broker about these deductions when you first apply for a mortgage).

Once these adjustments are calculated, the law office will call you.  Note that lawyers will typically deal with transactions in the order in which they close (that is, by possession date).  Therefore, if your possession date is not for several weeks, you will not likely receive a call until about two weeks before your possession date.

If you are going to be unavailable or difficult to reach, call the law office and let them know.

When the law office calls you they will set up an appointment between you and the lawyer.  You will be told what you will need to bring in with you to that appointment.  Note that all money payable on a real estate transaction must be paid by bank draft or certified cheque which you will have to obtain from your bank and bring to your appointment with the lawyer.  You may have to bring in proof of fire insurance, or if it’s a condo, your condo documents.  You will also have to bring picture I.D. with you of a type required by your particular lender, usually a valid driver’s licence and a credit card.

When you meet with the lawyer, the lawyer will review with you the title to the property, any encumbrances on title, and the Real Property Report or Condo status.  The lawyer will review your mortgage and all calculations.  If you are buying and placing a new mortgage, you will have to sign a lot of documents.  Come prepared for that and if possible avoid bringing small children with you as the process can take some time and you should want to learn what you can about your mortgage and other aspects of the transaction.

The lawyers will ensure that the proper amounts are paid and arrange for the transfer of title.  The listing agent will typically contact the Seller’s lawyer to ensure that everything has been done and that keys can be released.

The lawyers will payout any liens against the property that are not being assumed, and arrange to obtain a registered discharge of those liens.  For example, if the Seller had a mortgage that has to be paid, then the lawyers will contact the Seller’s mortgage company, arrange for a payout of the Seller’s mortgage, obtain a Discharge of Mortgage, register that Discharge, and then send proof of discharge to the Buyer and to the Buyer’s lender.  It will often be months after payout before mortgage companies send out discharges.

After possession, the law office will send one or more reports, which include a certificate of title in the Buyer’s name and all other relevant documents that you may need, together with an accounting of all funds.  When you meet with the lawyer, you will be told when to expect to receive your reports.  If you are a Seller, be aware that funds are often not releasable until some time after the possession date.

Sometimes you will need additional services from your lawyer, and the need for these may arise at any stage of the real estate transaction.  For example, people will often need something reviewed before conditions are waived.  Typically your Realtor will be able to alert you if there is a further need for legal input beyond what we have outlined above.  Your Realtor and/or lender can estimate your legal costs for you or you can call us in advance for an estimate.  Typically, real estate lawyers employ legal assistants experienced in the routine aspects of these transactions, and when calling a law office you may find it easier to ask for the particular legal assistant to whom your file has been assigned.  Do not be reluctant to call the lawyer directly, particularly if you have an unusual transaction.

Prepared for Realtors and their clients by:

BILL FRIC
Fric Loweinstein & Co. LLP
Barristers & Solicitors
#310, 2891 Sunridge Way NE
Calgary, Alberta T1Y 7K7
Phone: (403) 291-2594
Fax: (403) 291-2668

Mike says:  I have used Fric Lowenstein & Co. for my personal real estate transactions, and will continue to do so because of their exceptional service.

Correlation between supply, demand, and price in the Calgary real estate market

The basic economic model of Supply & Demand shows that price is a reflection of the amount of supply versus the amount of demand in a given market.

The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a product (house & condos), the less people will demand it.  In Calgary’s case, this decreased demand can be due to unobtainable financing, or perhaps because in many cases it has become cheaper to rent a similar home instead of buying it.

In the past several years when housing demand was high, builders and investors/speculators began supplying the market with a high quantity of product.   Obviously in a strong market, builders supply more at a higher price because selling a higher quantity at a higher price increases revenue.  Demand was higher than the available supply so prices escalated.  Likewise, the lower the demand, the lower the prices.

Condos in Metro-Calgary

Metro-Calgary Single Family Homes

Metro-Calgary Single Family Homes

Prices continue to lower until demand and supply are equal.  The point at which supply and demand reach equilibrium is when the housing market is at its most efficient.   At that given price, the amount of homes being supplied is exactly the same as the amount of homes being demanded.   For Calgary,  a healthy real estate market is having between 2 – 3.5 months supply of homes.

Supply & Demand for Calgary Condos

Supply & Demand for Calgary Condos

Supply & Demand for Single Family Homes

Supply & Demand for Calgary Single Family Homes

Supply has the disadvantage of having to factor in time.   Timing is important to supply because suppliers (builders, investors with condo conversions, etc) have to react quickly to demand or price.   They have to determine whether a price change caused by demand is permanent or temporary.

Builders were pumping out spec homes.   Condo conversions were everywhere.   Some people were purchasing second homes just to flip a month down the road.    Unfortunately for those sellers this demand, and as a result price change, was not permanent.

Prices started trending back down after summer 2007, and looking at the Absorption rate chart above, this is because we entered a buyer’s market.     If you compare the Absorption rate chart, with the graph below – you’ll see how the large month-to-month increases coincide mostly with the months where the Absorption rate was in a seller’s market.

click to enlarge

I realize this is a grossly simplified look at the real estate market since I’m not factoring in other important variables such as unemployment rates, migration levels, interest rates, credit availability, and the economy in general.    Consumer sentiment also  has a large effect on the real estate market, at times contrary to what economic fundamentals say prices should be doing. 

In the past few weeks I’ve been hearing quotes such as Warren Buffet’s, “Be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful,” in relation to the Calgary’s real estate market.   I’d like to point out that he also wrote, “A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.”  Your circumstances are different from everyone else’s, so do you research, read as much as you can, sample from differing viewpoints.   Buy or sell when it is the right decision for you.   When you’ve reached that point, I’d be happy to hear from you.

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Mike Fotiou, First Place Realty is a licensed Realtor, Certified Condominium Specialist, Accredited Buyer’s Representative and Commissioner for Oaths in the Province of Alberta.

Note:  Again, I want to point out that I am not a financial planner, nor an economist – I’m just trying to provide you with other market possibilities we may experience in the Calgary market based on statistical trends, and basic economic models.

Read Between The Lines – Part 3 (CBC News, December 10th)

 (Mike Fotiou says:  This is an opinion article.)

To quote Mugatu in the 2001 critically acclaimed blockbuster, Zoolander:  “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.”

This time, it’s CBC News at 6 (December 10, 2008) that wins the “objective journalism” award. If anyone saw the piece last night and has the link to the video, please post it.  In the meantime, here’s a transcript:

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CBC Host: The Bank of Canada key lending rate is now at 1 1/2 %, the lowest it has been in half a century.  Mark Carne is trying to jump-start the sluggish Canadian economy, and as Peter Ackman tells us, that strategy appears to be working in the Calgary Real Estate Market.

CBC Reporter:  For the last 5 weeks new mom Christine Baine has been focused on her son.   Investing hasn’t been a priority, but now with falling interest rates, Baine is seeing an opportunity in real estate to secure (her son’s) future… Real Estate agent KM has been run off her feet.  Instead of the usual winter slowdown, December has been the start of a real estate frenzy.

Real Estate Agent: Our phone is ringing off the hook.  People seem to be getting off the fence and they’re ready to buy.

CBC Reporter:  Property values have dipped over the last year in Calgary.  6% for SFH’s and almost 10% for Condos.  But Agent KM says that’s not the only reason for the resurgent in sales.  She says the BoC cutting interest rates has opened the doors for buyers.

Real Estate Agent:  Whether you’re an investor, or just wanting to get out of being a renter, moving up, trading up, this is awesome time to purchase.

Mortgage Broker:  Our rates are the lowest they’ve been in years and we’re anticipating that to get even better.

CBC Reporter:  This mortgage broker says unlike markets in Eastern Canada, he expects a HUGE rebound in Calgary’s real estate prices this spring.  And says if they shop around buyers can even find mortgages at lower than advertised prices.

Mortgage broker:  The stock market isn’t the place to go right now.  A lot of financial planners wouldn’t like hearing that too much, but I mean that’s a fact.  If anyone has any liquidity right now, they are looking at real estate.

CBC Reporter:  Now both mortgage brokers and real estate agents agree the safest investments are still right here in Alberta.  They’re telling their clients to avoid some Canadian cities and most of the US because they say they still haven’t hit rock bottom.

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Where do I begin?  I’m going to update the daily MLS stats.  Maybe pending sales, and sales spiked yesterday and I was  just unaware of it. 

For the record, I was not polled when the reporter made the blanket statement: ”Now both mortgage brokers and real estate agents agree the safest investments are still right here in Alberta.”

(more to come…)

Alright, I’m back and I have just finished updating the Calgary statistics for yesterday.  

I was wrong, sales did surge yesterday.  Condos sale rose by an incredible  37.5% on Wednesday over Tuesday, and over 400% percent from Sundays sales total.    (Total sold yesterday: 11.  Tuesday: 8 )

It’s too early to say what effect, if any, the rate reduction that happened just this week has had on real estate.    In any case, there hasn’t been a “real estate frenzy.”

Month-t0-date (December 1-10, 2008)  173 SFH have sold.  Last year at this time, that number was at 305.
Month-to-date (December 1-10, 2008)  82 condos have sold.  Last year, that number was at 141. 

It’s shaping to be one of the lowest sales level that a December has seen in Calgary.

“This mortgage broker says unlike markets in Eastern Canada, he expects a HUGE rebound in Calgary’s real estate prices this spring.”

Wut?

StatsCan, New House Price Index : Edmonton recorded a 12 month drop of 7.7%, which was the largest annual decline since May 1985, while Calgary recorded a year-over-year decrease of 1.6%; the largest annual decline for this metropolitan area since November 1991.

Bank of Canada warns of possible mass foreclosures   Calgary Sun, December 11, 2008

Calgary New Home Prices Record Biggest Drop in over 17 years Calgary Herald, December 11, 2008

Bank of Canada fears banks will tighten credit further Calgary Herald, December 11, 2008

Calgary Housing Slump has 18 month roots Calgary Herald, December 11, 2008

Canada in Recession, Job Jitters  Globe and Mail, December 11, 2008

And those are just TODAY’s headlines.    If we were to take the economy out of the equation, the sheer oversupply of homes makes it unlikely there will be a run-up of prices.  Even if demand were there, buyers are having a much more difficult time getting approved for mortgages.  

“If anyone has any liquidity right now, they are looking at real estate.”

I’m not an investment advisor or financial planner.  But common sense tells me that, as an investor, you would not tie up liquid assets (cash) into an illiquid real estate market (Calgary) where properties aren’t selling.    I’m not advising on trying to “time the bottom”, however it seems that we have some way to go before that is reached.

Mortgage rates are awesome right now, but with a little patience, I believe you will see home prices that will soon be equally attractive. When that time comes, feel free to call me :-)   

If you’re planning on selling, and won’t be upset with an honest assessment of today’s real estate market, I would be happy to answer questions or assist you.

Mike Fotiou, First Place Realty is a licensed Realtor, Accredited Buyer’s Representative, Certified Condominium Specialist and Commissioner for Oaths in the Province of Alberta.

Question Box: What are HOA fees?

HOA stands for “Home Owner’s Association.” 

HOA’s are compulsory organizations created by a developer to manage and maintain certain amenties of a development that the City will not accept responsibility to maintain such as entrance signage, ornamental parks and ponds, boulevard landscaping, etc.

Do I have to pay these fees?

Yes – membership is compulsory

How do I know if a property has these HOA fees?

The requirement to pay an annual fee is actually registered on the Land Title Certificate.  Your REALTOR should pull the title before going ahead and writing any offer on property.

For example, it might look like this on the Land Title:

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Registration Number   Date  (D/M/Y)       Particulars
_________________________________________

555 555 555          01/01/2000           ENCUMBRANCE
                                                                          ENCUMBRANCE - Community Name
                                                                          Address of Community Association
                                                                          Calgary, Alberta

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Once you have the registration number of the Encumbrance or Caveat, you can then pull that document and read the actual encumbrance which details the amount, date of payment, and all that it encompasses.

Some common ranges are $50 – 200 annually, but this varies by community, with some not having any HOA fees.