Seeing that we haven’t crossed over into December yet, this article might be a little premature. However, I thought it would interesting to take a peek at predictions from this time last year.
Below are predictions on what would happen to Calgary average prices in 2008 (Source 1, Source 2):
RE/MAX: 0% growth
CMHC: + 7.7%
REIN: + 12%
Royal Lepage: + 4%
Back in December 2007, FindCalgary.com had the poll: What will happen to Calgary home prices? Here were the results of those that responded to the poll:
14% Price will stabilize
21% Rise Slowly
6% Skyrocket
34% Drop slowly
23% Plummet
What really has happened so far in 2008?
Average Prices
Year-to-date (Jan 1 to Nov 26, 2008) the average SFH in metro-Calgary has cost $461,890. In 2007, the average price during the same time period was $473,418.
Year-to-date, the average condo has cost $303,142. In 2007, the average price during the same time period was $316,845.
Sales Volume
There have been 12,937 Single Family Home sales year to date. Last year during the same period there were 17,396 sales.
Same story for condos – this year there have been 5,424 sales. In 2007 during the same time period there were 7,754 sales.
Inventory
There are currently 5378 SFH’s for sale, and 2544 condos. That’s up from the 4984 and 2196 that was recorded from November 2007′s month-end.
Vacant/New Inventory is up too. Today there are 1608 SFH’s and 955 condos compared to the 1237 SFH, 669 Condos in December 2007 (when I first started recording that stat)
I have anecdotal evidence to suggest that the inventory will be spiking in early Spring. Many homeowners that have requested CMA’s from me, or had been trying to sell, have said they are going to “wait until the Spring until the market improves” to sell or relist.
Inventory Absorption Rate
Using the inventory and sales volume MTD, we are currently at a 9 month absorption rate for Single Family homes and over 10 months for condos. That means if no more homes were listed and sales continued at the same pace, it would take 9 & 10 months respectively to clear the inventory.
If you know of any other earlier predictions, please post the news links in your comments. Thanks!
