Average and median prices of Calgary SFHs & Condos barely fluctuated between March & April despite the continuing growth in inventory. How long can prices continue to be unaffected by this surge of supply and decreased demand?
The average price/sq ft stayed exactly put at $314 for SFHs, while it dropped to $314 from $319 for condos (click here for sq ft stats)
The Calgary real estate market is clearly in a “Buyers Market” as indicated by the graph below, with over 5 months supply of SFHs & condos for sale.
The last 2 tables show how the first few months of this year compared to previous years. April 2008 saw the highest level of new listings and the lowest sales amounts compared to previous Aprils going back to 2004. April year over year had the average price for SFHs remain unchanged while the median was down $12k.
If you were to look at the astronomical median price rise between 2005-2007, it’s understandable why “based on the historical analysis of all measures, Calgary was at one of its most affordable positions between 2000 and 2005…and in 2007 Calgarians had the least amount of discretionary income available after purchasing and adequate living standard.” View the entire Calgary Chamber of Commerce Housing Affordability Report here, with data going back to 1980
Hi Mike,
I like your website and follow the stats closely. Thanks.
Can you tell me why the Absorption Rate has moved upwards in the published graph? This window is now ~2.3 to over 4 months. This seems strange that this has changed.
Nirab.
Hello Nirab,
Thanks for your comments.
The “balanced market” window has continually fluctuated. For example, picking CREB Statistic Packages at random in April 2007 it was 2-3.5 months, August was 2.2-3.7 months, November was back down to 2-3.5 months.
Why it has changed for Aprils stats, I cannot say. Regardless, the chart shows we’re still solidly in a Buyers Market.
thanks Mike.
I am currently not in the country and have been an expat for 3 years, but know Calgary very well as I lived in the city for 30+ years. It is still crazy for me to think that houses have risen so much so quickly. I will be in the market in the next 6-9 months so I will keep very close to this site and should make contact soon with you to get more details on areas and homes.
cheers,
Nirab.
Mike:
Looks like Edmonton just saw the # of listings started to drop. Check the link below. Given Edmonton and Calgary are coupled with each other, it would not surprise me too much if Calgary starts to follow the same trend.
http://www.edmontonrealestateblog.com/my_weblog/2008/05/index.html
“That is the first decrease in overall inventory we’ve seen since January. Granted, we see a larger number of expired listings at the end of each month, which certainly contributed, but a shrinking inventory is good news for everyone right now in my opinion.”
Hi Mike,
Thanks so much for all your efforts in posting the statistics. Would you mind also posting the number of new listings each day and the number of expirations? It seems odd that the inventory doesn’t seem to be rising much lately even though new listings and sales seem to be at the same rate as when the inventory was rising rapidly.
Hello Michele,
Thanks for your comments. I’ll see what I can do, it’s been awfully busy. Until then, CREB reports the New Listings for the past 24 hours on their home page. When I do get a chance to add the New Listings stat, please bear in mind that it will be different from CREB’s numbers as I believe theirs is a rolling 24 hour stat, rather than for a specific day.
We will probably hit the 7000 SFH inventory level before the end of this week, however prices are still remaining put for the most part.
SFH Pending Sales: 352
Average: $522,925
Median: $419,900
Average price will likely rise for the next week, while the median will drop. (97% LP/SP ratio of $419,900)
Condo Pending Sales: 161
Average: $315,139
Median: $299,000
Average price will likely drop, with the median staying close to its current $290,000 point.
Thanks Mike,
I understand you’re busy, even the number of expirations would be great. I use the new listings from CREB’s site.
Thanks again
Mike:
I am looking for the data of how much over built has happened in the Calgary’s market, namely a normal number of absorbing new constructions, and the number we built in 2006 and 2007. That way we can figure out how much is over built. If we divide that with the normal absorbing rate ( an average number for 2002,2003 2004 and 2005?), we can, at least mathmatically, find out how long it will take the market to absorb them. Oh, we need to further deduct the current slowed down but still happening new constructions.
Complex enough for you?
Thanks
You can view all the new construction statistics at Statistics Canada: link
So far today, there have been 79 SFHs sold. However this hasn’t stopped the SFH inventory from shooting past 7000 with no thoughts of looking back.
The Calgary Herald just released this story: MLS home for sale inventory hits record high
However, as you’ll see tomorrow when I post the days numbers: Average Prices, Median Prices, and Avg $ / Sq ft continue to stubbornly climb.
Any thoughts?
I believe the seller’s confidence that affected the composition of the listings, namely, the asking price distribution. When there isn’t enough low price marked homes available, the transction has to be based on the higher ones. If we count 97% of asking price as the final price, we will see the price will go higher.
It also indicated that the number of motivated sellers is not that many. People list their home and wait patiently. When the high # of listings meets very low moral, there will be a lot of deep price cut, that reflects in lowered price.
I am not a RE professional…just throw in some stones to stire up some thoughts
Mike:
The # of listings came down again, but this time is not at the end of a month. Let’s watch a couple of days and see what’s happening.
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