Calgary Home Sales At Highest Level Since 2007

Calgary home sales have surpassed 2013′s year-end total and are on track for the 4th best year on record.

A total of 24,011 properties have sold on MLS® year-to-date, already 2.3% more than the 23,474 sales for all of 2013.   Only 2005, 2006 & 2007 have had more sales (See chart below)

A combination of factors has boosted Calgary real estate sales to the highest level since 2007:

  • Despite prices in the city rising at a faster clip than anywhere else in Canada, low interest rates and high earnings have helped keep affordability in check.
  • Record population growth and net migration due to favorable economic conditions.
  • The combination of low vacancy and high rents has persuaded many tenants to decide it was time to buy.
  • YTD new listings have risen 12% y/y and current inventory levels are 20% higher than a year ago.  Increased selection coupled with continued demand has resulted in more sales
Calgary home sales, Y/Y comparison

Calgary home sales, Y/Y comparison

Canadian Housing Market Report: October 2014

Download the full CREA statistics report for October 2014: here

October 2014 Report Highlights

house• National home sales rose 0.7% from September to October.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 7% above October 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes rose 0.8% from September to October.
• The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.5% year-over-year in October.
• The national average sale price rose 7.1% on a year-over-year basis in October.

Bank Commentary

BMO Economics: Calgary prices rose 9.5% y/y, softening somewhat in recent months. Recent weakness in oil prices could suggest that we’ve seen the highs for home price growth in this city for a while. The Bottom Line: It’s still a 3-city show in Canada’s housing market. While price momentum in Calgary might finally be slowing, Vancouver and Toronto continue to strengthen. (Read full commentary here )

TD Economics:  The Canadian housing market received a second wind following the 45 basis point decline in interest rates at the start of this year. However, the impact is expected to fade in the coming months as pent-up demand eases. Interest rate declines of this magnitude have historically boosted sales for up to 6-months and October was that mark. Furthermore, affordability is likely to deteriorate as home prices are still growing at a faster pace than incomes. (Read full commentary here pdf)

RBC Economics: Today’s data offers very little to alter the housing picture that has prevailed in Canada since spring: robust activity in a trio of ‘hot’ markets—namely Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver—continues to overshadow balanced or soft conditions elsewhere in the country. There is also little evidence that this picture is about to change imminently. The hot markets continue to march at the beat of their own drums, supported by favourable demographic and economic factors. (Read full commentary here pdf)

Upcoming Changes To CREB® Statistics

CREB® will be switching to a new MLS® System early in 2015 as the current one will no longer be supported.  The evaluation process for the replacement system began in 2013 and in the end, Matrix™ was selected.

Agents will have access to Matrix™ beginning November 24th to begin learning the ins and outs of the new system before the rollover is complete on February 10, 2015.

What this means for clients

Some of the new features include: a new Client Portal will allow you to create and save searches of your own, categorize listings according to your interest level and more.  If you currently have saved searches with me in MLXchange, you will automatically be migrated into Matrix™.

Listings will be improved as the number of photos allowed has been increased from 20 to 50 per listing.   Not only that, but the largest photo display size will be enlarged from 640 x 480 to 1024 x 768.

What this means for the real estate statistics

The data structure in Matrix™ is different from what MLXchange offered, so the statistics will need to be updated.

For example: single family, condo-apartment and condo-townhome will be changed to attached, detached, apartment and land.   That means beginning in February there will be little point in referencing earlier monthly stat packages released by CREB® because they’ll no longer be an apples-to-apples comparison.

I’m not sure how I feel about condo-townhomes being lumped with attached homes that aren’t condos or about detached homes that are bareland condos being in the detached category – but it’s too early to comment further at this point.

As soon the 10-year historical stats are released with the updated data structure, I’ll be sure to make that available so you can continue tracking the stats accurately.

There might be some downtime with my weekly stats around February as I update all my spreadsheets with the new data, so please bear with me.

For a complete list of all the changes to the statistics, CREB® has a breakdown here:

List of Data Structure Changes to the Statistics (click to enlarge)

List of Data Structure Changes to the Statistics (click to enlarge)

November 1-14, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

The condominium market is boosting overall sales while single family transactions are lagging behind last year’s pace.

Overall Calgary sales between November 1-14 are up 4% year-over-year thanks to a 17% and 30% spike in apartment and townhome sales.

The 563 single family sales MTD is above the historical average but it’s nearly a -4% decline from the same period last year.  As the benchmark price of SFH has climbed above the half-million dollar mark, some buyers are seeking out more affordable housing - whether it’s expanding their search to condos in Calgary or more inexpensive homes in nearby areas such as Airdrie.

Sales-to-new-listings ratio Nov 14 2014

Calgary home sales Nov 1-14 2014

Calgary home sales, Nov 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary luxury home sales Nov 1-14 2014

Calgary luxury home sales, Y/Y comparison

Calgary Stats - Nov 14 2014

Calgary Stats Summary, November 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary New Home Prices At All-Time High in October

Calgary new housing prices rose 0.3% between September & October according to Statistics Canada’s New Housing Price Index (NHPI).  That’s the 34th consecutive month without a decline, dating back to December 2011. (Chart 1)

Year-over-year, Calgary’s NHPI was up 6.5%, the highest across Canada.  Builders in Calgary reported higher material and labour costs, as well as market conditions, as the reasons for the increase. (Chart 2)  Calgary’s index level now sits at an all-time high of 110.7  (Chart 3)

The NHPI covers the following dwelling types: single dwellings, semi-detached and row houses (town house and garden homes).  Apartment-condominiums are not included.  For a complete look at the methodology used to create the NHPI, click here.

Calgary M/M Percent Change

Chart1: Calgary’s m/m percentage change

NHPI Comparison - September 2014

Chart 2: Calgary posts largest y/y price increase

Calgary NHPI - September 2014

Chart 3: Calgary Historical New Housing Price Index

NHPI - September 2014

NHPI – September 2014

Calgary Repeat Home Sale Prices Rise For Tenth Straight Month

Forgetting that real estate is highly regional, some pundits have been predicting a Canada-wide housing crash for years now.  According to the October release of the Teranet-National Bank HPI, composite prices have now risen year-over-year for sixty-one straight months dating back to October 2009.

In Calgary, repeat home sale prices increased 0.5% between September and October. That’s the 10th consecutive monthly gain, the longest current active streak of all the cities tracked by the index.   Year-over-year, prices in Calgary increased by a nation-leading 9.1%.

Victoria remained the only city with prices down y/y in October: -0.1%.

Aside from Calgary, Toronto and Hamilton also saw large annual gains of 7.4% and 7.3%.  Not far behind was Vancouver, the city that was supposedly in the midst of a crash a few year back, with a year-over-year hike of 6.5% and the highest monthly jump of 1.2%.

Source: housepriceindex.ca

Source: housepriceindex.ca

 

November 1-7, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales in the first week of November were up 6.82% as a total of 470 properties sold compared to 440 during the same period a year ago.

The November (month-end) sales record is 2,229 set back in 2005.  In the first week of that month, there were 540 sales.   With two fewer weekdays this month and sales already trailing 2005′s pace, it’s unlikely a new peak will be established.

City of Calgary prices, on the other hand, have been up year-over-year every month in 2014, and for each of those individual months the average, median and benchmark price were record highs.

Currently, the all-time peak prices for the City of Calgary overall are:

  • Average price: $492,147 (June 2014)
  • Median price: $434,750 (May 2014)
  • Benchmark price: $460,700 (October 2014)
  • Index level: 215 (August, September & October 2014)

So far in November, the average price is up 2.62% y/y from $473,602 to $485,987 and the median is up 4.75% from $410,500 to $430,000.

Sales-to-new-listings Ratio - Nov 7 2014

Calgary Home Sales - Nov 1-7

Calgary Home Sales, November 1-7, Y/Y Comparison

Calgary Luxury Home Sales - Nov 1-7

Calgary Luxury Home Sales, November 1-7, Y/Y Comparison

Calgary Stats Summary - Nov 7 2014

Calgary Stats Summary, November 1-7, Y/Y Comparison