Calgary 2014 Civic Census

To download the entire census along with additional tables in PDF and EXCEL formats, click here 

2014 Civic Census Overview

From the City of Calgary, a summary of the results from the 2014 Civic Census are as follows.

1. TOTAL POPULATION: for 2014 is 1,195,194 up 38,508 residents from 2013.

  • Calgary’s population grew from 1,156,686 in April 2013 to 1,195,194 in April 2014. This represents an increase of 3.33%. This level of population growth is similar to what was experienced in 2013.
  • Saddleridge leads the way in growth with a population increase of 2,373 residents. Seven other communities also had an increase of more than 1,000 residents.

The communities with a population increase of more than 1,000 are:

  • Auburn Bay (2,242 additional residents)
  • Cranston (1,858 additional residents)
  • Skyview Ranch (1,759 additional residents)
  • Evanston (1,704 additional residents)
  • Panorama Hills (1,384 additional residents)
  • Aspen Woods (1,095 additional residents)
  • Beltline (1,091 additional residents)

2. NATURAL INCREASE: for the 2013-2014 period was 10,491, similar to the level of naturally increase seen in 2013.

  • Natural increase is a result of the excess of births over deaths. The natural increase was 10,491 persons, up 231 from the previous period of 2012-2013.

3. NET MIGRATION: experienced similar levels as seen in 2013 resulting in 28, 017 additional residents moving to Calgary.

  • Net migration is the difference between the total population growth recorded and the natural increase. At 28,017, there was an increase in net migration from 2013’s net migration of 26,201.

4. HOUSING: housing stock continues to rise with an increase of 9,865 dwelling units, bringing the total number of dwelling units in the city to 478,223, an increase of 2.06%.

  • The number of vacant dwelling units in Calgary is now 9,315, a decrease of 2,467 from the 11,782 vacant units in 2013. A vacant dwelling is defined as a dwelling that is suitable and available for occupancy and does not include those dwellings under construction or renovation.
  • The overall vacancy rate in the city is 2.01%, down from 2.59% in April 2013.
  • The number of dwellings under construction is 8,873, up 823 from 8,050 in 2013.
  • There are now 453,626 occupied dwellings. Of this number, 311,782 or 68.73% are owner-occupied. In 2013, the comparable percentage was 68.50%.

July 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales are on pace for the second best July month on record while average and median prices are up across all three housing categories.

A total of 1,548 home have sold month-to-date, a 3.13% year-over-year increase.  Price growth remains robust despite a 20% rise in new listings and a nearly 12% jump in active listings from the same period a year ago.

Single family
Average price: +3.25%,  $17,280
Median price: +9.49%, $41,750

Condo-Townhome
Average price: +13.25%, $42,909
Median price: +12.56%, $36,825

Condo-Apartment
Average price: +14.68%, $41,933
Median price:  +10.79%, $27,750

Sales to New Listings Ratio

Calgary home sales

Calgary home sales

Calgary luxury home sales

Calgary luxury home sales

Calgary Stats Summary

Calgary Stats Summary

Alberta Mortgages In Arrears Back At 2008 Levels

A total of 1,941 Alberta residential mortgages were behind in payment by three or more months in April, according to statistics released by the Canadian Bankers Association.   That’s a -15.7% drop from the 2,303 mortgages in arrears the previous year.

Alberta’s mortgage arrears rate now stands at 0.35%, the lowest it has been dating back to October 2008 and below the twenty year average of 0.46%.

Historical Alberta Mortgage Arrears

Historical Alberta Mortgage Arrears 

Note: Gray line in chart above is just to help visualize how April compares to previous months, it does not represent the 20 year average.

You can download the data for all the provinces here pdf

If you want an EXCEL spreadsheet, you can find it on CBA’s webpage here.

The CBA report includes data from BMO, CIBC, HSBC Bank Canada, National Bank of Canada, RBC Royal Bank, Scotiabank, and TD Canada Trust, Canadian Western Bank, Manulife Bank (as of April 2004) and Laurentian Bank (as of October 2010)

July 1-14, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

The Canadian housing stats for June were released today and with it came a host of cautious if not pessimistic commentary from the banks.  Sales are expected to slow nationwide and “in the near term, affordability will be strained by home prices outpacing income gains in key markets such as Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.”    That’s the outlook going forward.  Let’s review what’s currently happening in our market.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio remains above 60% indicating that Calgary is still in a seller’s market.  It’s not a stretch to expect that prices are still rising then.

sales to new listings ratio - July 14 2014

Price growth for condos are showing double-digit percent gains year-over-year.   Month-to-date, condo-apartment average prices are up 19.01% while the median increased by 11.94%.   Condo-Townhome average and median prices are both up exactly the same: 12.37% (That’s pretty neat, heh)

Single family home average prices are up a mere 0.36% y/y.   After setting back-to-back all-time luxury sales records in May and June, high-end sales this month have cooled off.  If you take a look at the luxury chart below you’ll see that $1M+ sales are trailing both 2013′s and 2007′s month-to-date tally.   To be sure, a new all-time luxury sales record will not stretch to three consecutive months and the market will be hard pressed to set a new monthly record as has been the case for every previous month in 2014.  The median price of a single family home is showing an 8.63% annual gain.

Overall activity is brisk with month-to-date sales only one off from 2005′s leading pace.  Year-over-year, sales are up 8.99%.

Calgary home sales, July 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary home sales, July 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary luxury home sales, Y/Y comparison

Calgary luxury home sales, Y/Y comparison

Calgary & Area Stats Summary

Calgary & Area Stats Summary

Canadian Housing Market Report: June 2014

Download the full CREA statistics report for June: here pdf

Report Highlights

• National home sales rose 0.8% from May to June.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 11.2% above June 2013 levels.
• The number of newly listed homes was little changed from May to June.
• The Canadian housing market remains in balanced territory.
• The national average sale price rose 6.9% on a year-over-year basis in June.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year in June.

Bank Commentary

TDTD Economics: Gains in the Canadian housing market over May and June have represented more than just a bounce back from weather-related weakness following the winter months. Mortgage interest rates hit record low levels in June, helping to fuel an acceleration in housing activity – including sales, prices and  homebuilding. Existing home prices (average and on a quality adjusted basis) are on track to outstrip  income growth for a second straight year in 2014 which only adds to concerns of an already-overpriced market.

Looking beyond the near-term boost from low interest rates, we are still of the view that the Canadian housing market will cool later this year and into 2015. For one, interest rates are not expected to remain this low for much longer with economic conditions forecast to pick up. Affordability, even at low interest rates, is already becoming an obstacle in many markets – particularly Toronto.  (Read full commentary here pdf)

bmoBMO Economics: Canada’s housing market continues to look balanced overall, with stark disparities persisting at the regional level. That said, it is a tad concerning that prices are running firmly ahead of income growth in a few major cities. Calgary is understandable and Vancouver is shaking off a mild correction, but Toronto might be getting too hot for its own good.  (Read full commentary here pdf)

scotiaScotia Economics:  Ultra-low borrowing costs and aggressive rate discounting continue to support housing affordability and demand, notwithstanding weak job growth and record high home prices. Activity is also benefitting from pent-up demand generated by a harsh winter, and increased supply as listings improve. However, the more moderate sales gain in June suggests the impact of these temporary factors may be waning.

While historically low interest rates continue to support homebuying activity, Canada’s housing market has more downside than upside risk over the medium term.  Valuations are stretched in many centres, and the eventual shift to a higher interest rate environment will reinforce a deterioration in affordability, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s largest urban centres.  The underlying pool of potential new buyers also appears limited, with homeownership rates at or near record levels across most age cohorts.  (Read full commentary here pdf)

RBC Economics: The housing story so far this year in CanaRBCda is as much about supply as it is about homebuyer demand. Scarcity of ‘quality’ listings this winter limited the choices available to buyers, many of whom consequently opted for the sidelines until more suitable offerings came along. Strong increases in new listings this spring widened the array of buying possibilities and no doubt contributed to fuel the spring season, late as it may have started. Attractive mortgage rates likely provided further motivation for homebuyers.

We believe that the run-up in resale activity since April likely satisfied any pent-up demand that emerged this winter when supply was short. Going forward, we expect resales to moderate gradually from recent monthly levels. The basis for this moderation primarily will be growing housing affordability pressure. In the near term, affordability will be strained by home prices outpacing income gains in key markets such as Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary. Later this year and into next, we expect higher interest rates to erode affordability more broadly. On the price front, we expect a modest gain of 3.4% in 2014 at the national level, followed by virtually no change (-0.1%) in 2015.  (Read full commentary here pdf)

Calgary Repeat Home Sale Price Growth Leads Canada

Calgary home prices advanced 8.1% year-over-year in June, leading Canada for the fifth straight month according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index released today.    Repeat sale prices increased 0.9% between May and June.

June Teranet HPI

Source: Teranet-National Bank

Bank Commentary

TDTD Economics: With the housing market having now shaken off the winter blues, price are continuing to rise at a  solid pace. That said, the continued deceleration in price growth on a year-over-year basis may be an indication that the Canadian housing market is becoming more balanced.

We expect to see the cooling trend continue through the end of 2015. This view is premised on rising prices encouraging strong growth in new listings while the number of newly-competed housing units remain elevated, both of which will boost supply and weigh on prices. At the same time, interest rates are likely to grind higher in Canada, resulting in reduced affordability.

Oversupply of housing has already been evident in the markets of Halifax, Ottawa, and Quebec City. In contrast, the resale markets that saw the strongest year-over-year growth in June still look to be on the tight side.  (Read full commentary pdf)

National Bank: Although June’s advance in the Composite index looks robust, it is the second lowest gain in the last decade for a month of June. Indeed, at 4.4%, the 12-month change in the Composite index is the weakest since the beginning of the year.

Price trends continue to diverge on a regional basis, with weakness concentrated in regions located east of Toronto. This is consistent with a situation of excess supply on the resale markets in these regions, while markets are balanced elsewhere and even tight in Calgary and Hamilton.

The price decline from a year ago in Winnipeg (a first since September 1996) seems to be related to a recent surge in new listings relative to sales, a situation perhaps triggered by the fact that prices in that city have nearly doubled in the last nine years, the best performance among the regions covered by the Index. Looking ahead, the Composite index should continue to grow over the next few months, with weakness east of Toronto being dwarfed by generally healthy market conditions elsewhere. (Read full commentary pdf)

Calgary Community Demographics

Calgary Community Profiles

Community Profiles

Whether you’re new to Calgary or just moving to a different area, you might be curious about your prospective neighborhood.

The City of Calgary provides community demographic profiles which reflect the most recent statistics from both the federal and civic censuses.

You’ll be able to discover:

  • population and future projections
  • age distribution
  • employment and income levels
  • education
  • housing types and more

Just today, these profiles came in handy for a buyer client that wants to relocate to a neighborhood where the demographics would support a specific business venture.  Maybe you’ll find the information useful too.

You can view all the community profiles here.